THE TREASURY MARKET IS CLOSED TODAY 11/11 IN OBSERVANCE OF VETERANS DAY
EFFECTIVE 5:00 PM EASTERN TIME: 11/10/97 /_________________\
KEY INDICATOR CURRENT CHANGE FROM LAST YIELD |6-Mth CD :5.72% *|
--------------- --------- ---------------- ------ |11th COFI:4.941% |
3-month T-Bill: 5.19 - up 4 basis pnts-5.33% |6Mo-LIBOR:5.805% |
10 Year T-Note: 101 22/34 - up 2/32 -5.89% |1Yr TBill:5.44% *|
Long Bond.....: 99 24/32 - up 5/32 -6.14% |3Yr TBill:5.77% *|
Dow Jones.....: 7552.59 - down 28.73 |5Yr TBill:5.81% *|
FHLMC 60 day..: 7.36% - up from 7.34% (11/10) |10YrTBill:5.92% *|
FNMA 60 day...: 7.34% - from 7.34% (11/10) |30YrTBond:6.20% *|
|PRIME - 8.500%|
Todays Interest Rate/Loan Fee Pricing Trend: |DISCOUNT - 5.000%|
*** UP/STABLE *** |FED FUNDS- 5.50 |
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* Wkly Average ending 11/07
This is a fairly light week in the economic report department with the most meaningful events being Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; Thursday's release of 3rd quarter productivity, Initial Jobless Claims and a scheduled speech by Alan Greenspan on Asian Markets; and Friday's releases on the October Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales. (See the calendar for details).
According to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires, economists at 37 of the 38 primary dealers in the U.S. are predicting no change in interest rates at tomorrow's FOMC meeting.
However, some observers added that absent the precarious state of Asian economies and volatile stock markets, Friday's strong wage and payroll figures would have clinched the case for a rate increase at the Fed meeting.
Analysts warned that if, as expected, the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates alone Wednesday, the market will be left at prices that don't reflect the potential inflationary pressures of a surging economy and tight labor markets. In addition to the high payroll figure Friday, the Labor Department also reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in October.
The bond market generally posted slight gains yesterday, with the advances concentrated in longer-dated issues as the market continued to take its cues from stocks. In trading late, the price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond was up 4/32, lowering its yield slightly to 6.14% from 6.15% late Friday.
Early Monday, Treasurys lost ground in response to firmer overseas equity markets and a surge in U.S. stocks.
They also were down in what one trader described as "anxiety trading" carrying over from Friday's payroll figures showing an unexpected jump of 284,000 jobs in October. That pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.7%, the lowest in 24 years, and stoked fears that tight labor markets may spark inflationary pressures.
But Treasurys recovered their early losses and even posted some modest gains as the stock market retreated into negative territory.
Despite recent economic data that would tend to be bearish for bonds, analysts said stock-market volatility concerns continue to keep Treasurys trading in a high range, thanks to their appeal as a haven....