EFFECTIVE 5:00 PM EASTERN TIME: 11/04/97 /_________________\
KEY INDICATOR CURRENT CHANGE FROM LAST YIELD |6-Mth CD :5.71% *|
--------------- --------- ---------------- ------ |11th COFI:4.941% |
3-month T-Bill: 5.10 - down 2 basis pnts-5.24% |6Mo-LIBOR:5.805% |
10 Year T-Note: 101 10/32 - down 10/32 -5.95% |1Yr TBill:5.35% *|
Long Bond.....: 101 22/32 - down 17/32 -6.25% |3Yr TBill:5.73% *|
Dow Jones.....: 7689.13 - up 14.73 |5Yr TBill:5.78% *|
FHLMC 60 day..: 7.39% - up from 7.38% (11/03) |10YrTBill:5.90% *|
FNMA 60 day...: 7.36% - up from 7.34% (11/03) |30YrTBond:6.22% *|
|PRIME - 8.500%|
Todays Interest Rate/Loan Fee Pricing Trend: |DISCOUNT - 5.000%|
*** STABLE *** |FED FUNDS- 5.50 |
================ |_________________|
* Wkly Average ending 10/31
Also later today, the Treasury will hold the first leg of its quarterly refunding, auctioning $14 billion in 3-Year Notes. This is followed by $11 billion in 10-Year Notes tomorrow and $10 billion in 30-Year Bonds on Thursday.
Friday's looming October employment report will also begin to have an impact on the markets as investors begin to position for these numbers. The market has forecast a 4.8% unemployment rate and a rise of 215,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls.
The Conference Board reported this morning that the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index rose 0.2% in September to 104.5, which matched analysts' expectations and followed a 0.2% increase in August. The leading index, designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months in advance, has increased for five straight months, a sign of no imminent halt to economic growth. Over the six months through September, the index increased 1.6%.
Treasuries fell sharply yesterday as stocks rose. Most of the day's declines were recorded overnight on the heels of a 5.9% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index. The Dow's 232 point rise also helped to shave away some of the market's flight-to-quality premium.
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared ahead 232.31 points, or 3.12%, to 7674.39, the 30-year government bond fell 29/32, pushing its yield up to 6.21%. Yesterday's stock action came close to wiping out the last remnant of the previous Monday's 554.26 point plunge. Only 41.02 points of those Bloody Monday losses are left to recover.
Bonds and stocks usually go in the same direction. But Monday's action has become the rule since U.S. markets were rocked by a plunge in Hong Kong's stock market Oct. 23. Every day but one since, stocks and bonds have moved in opposite directions, often sharply so.
There was no single catalyst for the market's leap Monday, traders said. The Dow Jones industrial's gain was the third-largest point advance in its 101-year history, trailing only last Tuesday's record 337.17-point gain and a 257.36-point rise on Sept. 2. On a percentage basis though, Monday's rise doesn't make even the top-100 list.
In the day's economic reports, the NAPM index posted an unexpected increase to 56.0% in October from 54.2% in September, posting impressive gains in almost every category. The price index rose to 55.9% from 54.7%, which will keep inflation fears alive.
In other releases--personal income, personal spending, and construction spending were of little interest. Income and spending were near expectations while construction spending was weaker than expected....